Most economists, investors, and strategists believe that a win for Hillary Clinton will be positive for the US Dollar whilst a win for Donald Trump will be negative for the US Dollar.
How much the currency will move?
A victory for the experienced Democrat politician is expected to prompt a dollar rally. Since she was cleared by the FBI of wrongdoing in relation to her emails at the weekend the dollar has already strengthened. This trend is expected to continue if Clinton wins the White House.
Here the impact is vastly more uncertain – both in the short-term and medium term. Many analysts think the value of the dollar will initially sink against the currencies of developed countries such as the UK, Japan and Switzerland if Trump edges the contest. It will also probably fall against the euro, the second most important global currency.
Firstly, it depends who you speak to. CitiBank believe if Trump wins, there could be a Brexit style reaction by the US Dollar, losing 5% of its value against the Euro and Sterling and a drop in the S&P 500. Barclays agree and are forecasting a drop of up to 13% in US equities. This kind of reaction will inevitably induce currency volatility; the BMO Capital Markets forecast a Trump win will see GBP/USD at 1.2675 compared to GBP/USD 1.2130 if Clinton wins. Currently GBP/ USD is at 1.2400 so the currency range post-election is 2.7 cents on the BMO forecast. Looking at Brexit, the surprise result saw Sterling drop nearly 15 cents which makes 2.7 cents look like nothing so it is more than likely it will move a lot more than 2.7 cents.
What impact will the election have on currencies?
Many strategists see Hillary Clinton as the more predictable of the two candidates. Therefore, should she win, stocks could rise and investments that are considered safe havens – like Gold – could weaken. When you think about safe-haven currencies you think of the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc and to some degree the Euro, all of which could be sold if Hillary wins. On the flip-side, a win by Donald Trump could have the opposite effect. Investors will rush to safe-havens and the likes of the Australia Dollar and NZ Dollar will suffer, enabling the US Dollar and Sterling to move higher.
How do they manage the risk the election poses?
One way would be to trade before the election result and taking all the currency risk out of the equation. Such approach could be via a spot trade or via a forward. Alternatively, you could spread your risk by trading some spot now and/or some via a forward pre-election and leave some of your requirements until post-election. It is a risky view; there are hundreds of customers of ours that wish they hadn’t gambled on the Brexit vote. So to avoid that, trade now.
Despite all this, the BIG question is who will win.