Another Poll, Another Poll-Axing for Sterling – 13th June 2016

Another Poll, Another Poll-Axing for Sterling

On Friday The Independent published the result of an opinion poll it had commissioned, which showed 55% of people wanting to Leave the EU and 45% in favour of Remaining. The ten-percentage-point gap rattled investors and sent Sterling lower. Polls yesterday for The Observer and The Sunday Times delivered much closer, but contradictory, results. The former had 44% in and 42% out; in the latter the split was 42% to 43%.

Sunday’s results protected Sterling from further damage this morning but it had already suffered on Friday, opening this morning 1.2% lower compared to Friday. It lost two and a half US cents, one and three quarter Euro cents, three Aussie cents and two and a half Kiwi cents.

There was nothing on the economic calendar on Friday to engender any great interest. German wholesale prices were down by 2.3% on the year, inflation in Norway was considerably higher at 3.4% while the Canadian Dollar perked up on news that unemployment had fallen from 7.1% to 6.9%.

Today’s list of significant economic statistics and events is not quite empty but none of them will be going on during the London session. Earlier this morning China reported a 10% annual increase in retail sales and a 6% rise in industrial production, both of which were exactly in line with forecasts. The next data comes from the antipodes tonight. New Zealand leads off with the food price index, followed by the REINZ house price index. The Australian data covers inflation expectations and business confidence.

In the absence of any new and damaging opinion polls, Sterling might be able to hold itself together until then.