Blog

#GBP remains calm whilst currencies do the opposite – 9th September 2015

Efforts by China’s Securities Regulatory Commission over the last two months to stabilise Shanghai equity prices is starting to bear fruit. Investors seem to have decided that fresh stimulus measures by the authorities in Beijing will finally start to put the Chinese economy to rights.
So on a day when Japan confirmed a slowing economy, China reported a slump in international trade and Australia revealed a collapse in business confidence the behaviour of exchange rates was the diametric opposite of what would be considered normal. The safe-haven Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen took a -1.5% hammering while the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars went up by 1% and the South African Rand strengthened by more than 2%.
In the midst of the chaos, Sterling remained calm. It was unchanged on average against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies, adding two thirds of a US cent and more than one Euro cent. The Euro received no help from an upward revision, from 0.3% to 0.4%, to Q2 EU GDP while the US Dollar received no help from an improvement in business optimism.
There was a similar lack of reaction to Australian figures this morning which showed a decline in consumer confidence and slower-than-expected growth in mortgage lending. The Aussie did, however, soften slightly after the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia said the weak currency was helping support economic growth.

Sterling’s success today will depend on the data for UK manufacturing and industrial production and, to an extent, on the July trade figures. There are interest rate announcements from the Bank of Canada this afternoon and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand tonight.

No change to interest rates is expected from the Bank of Canada today but analysts are almost unanimous in their expectation that the RBNZ will cut its Official Cash Rate from 3% to 2.75%. In theory, the cut is so widely-expected that it should not affect the Kiwi. In theory anyway.