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#AUD #NZD and #ZAR as flight to safety reverses – 30th September 2015

Another day and another change of heart from investors. On Monday it was all about the flight to safety as money fled from the allegedly risky commodity-oriented currencies – the Australian Dollar, the NZ Dollar and the South African Rand – and into the supposedly safer Japanese Yen, Euro and the Swiss Franc. On Tuesday that way of thinking was reversed.
The top performer was the South African Rand, which recouped the previous day’s -1.5% loss, while the 1% gains achieved by the Aussie and the Kiwi also almost exactly cancelled out Monday’s declines. The safe-haven Euro and Swiss Franc were unchanged on the day against Sterling and the even-safer-haven Japanese Yen brought up the rear of the field.

It would appear therefore that investors are not nervous but uncertain. There were no economic statistics to fan the flames on Tuesday; the CBI’s measure of UK retail sales was a decent enough 49, having doubled on the month, and mortgage approvals were up but neither figure was a particular milestone. Euroland confidence readings were higher in September except for consumer confidence, which was unchanged.

In his address to Lloyds of London Bank of England Governor Mark Carney focused on the risks posed to the insurance market by climate change. He stayed off the subject of monetary policy so his speech did not affect Sterling.

The important numbers this morning will be the second revision to second quarter growth in the UK and the provisional Euroland inflation figure for September. There are no really high-profile ecostats from North America but three Federal Reserve bosses will be giving speeches. Expectations are for gross domestic product to have expanded by 0.7% in Q2. It is also likely that GDP growth between 2011 and 2013 will receive an upward revision. It is unlikely that these numbers will be enough to give Sterling a leg-up.