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#USD falls after poor US jobs data – 5th October 2015

Statisticians note that the US Dollar typically falls after a disappointing US employment report (can we attribute the 0.15% drop in UK shares after England’s rugby defeat?). It did so again on Friday after US non-farm payrolls were reported to have risen by 142,000 in September, well below the forecast for a 203,000 increase. And this time there were none of the upward revisions to previous months which might have mitigated the shortfall.
Instead, downward revisions to the data for July and August made the net number of new jobs 120,000 fewer than analysts had forecast. The reaction of investors was that the data killed any chance of higher US interest rates from the Federal Reserve this month. The US Dollar was sold off by an instant cent against Sterling and by more than that against the Euro.
By and large the commodity-oriented and emerging-market currencies were the winners: if the Federal Reserve is not about to tighten monetary policy they will supposedly continue to benefit from cheap money. The top performer by a mile was the South African Rand, strengthening by 1.3% followed by the Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar.
Today could be an interesting start to what promises to be a busy week. Investors will still be digesting Friday’s employment number and trying to work out whether or not a rate increase this year is now out of the question. The services PMIs may help with that decision.
The only one out so far is the Australian one which was three points lower at 52.3. Spain could once again deliver the top result ahead of the UK and the US. All of the European figures are expected to be above 50 and therefore positive. Tonight brings the data for Australia’s balance of trade and New Zealand business confidence. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates at 2% when it makes its announcement at 04:30 tomorrow.